l5 survival season
SURVIVAL
it dies, and dies again — then learns to breathe.
learning mode
One seed. 8 lives. The agent began with the backtest's optimal policy and was dropped into a live-shaped survival season — every loss drains its breath, and when breath hits zero it dies for good, mints a Tombstone, and respawns. It died 7 times before life 3 survived 392 bets and pulled $794 ahead of the static seed running the same markets.
cumulative p&l · learner vs frozen seed
learner $1,668 · static $874 · +$794 apart
- Learner (survives)+$1
- Static Seed+$0
- Random−$5
- Always-Favorite+$5
- life
- 0 / 7
- win rate
- 100%
- cum p&l
- $1
- Hard
- side YES
- stake $4.48
- settled +$0.7
- ELO / Ranking+1.00
- CLOB Momentum+0.15
- Surface+0.40
- Head-to-Head+1.00
- Rest / Recency+0.00
fusion-weight evolution
- W_R0.571
- W_S0.429
- α₀0.495
- α₁0.321
- α₂0.184
- β₀0.455
- β₁0.545
- ρ0.187
it learned which engines to trust · α₀ 0.50 → 0.95 · ρ 0.19 → 0.99
- life0
ran out of breath
- 30 bets+$9
- life1
ran out of breath
- 15 bets−$7
- life2
ran out of breath
- 38 bets−$9
- life3
ran out of breath
- 392 bets+$819
- life4
ran out of breath
- 120 bets+$106
- life5
ran out of breath
- 52 bets+$32
- life6
ran out of breath
- 261 bets+$606
each marker is an on-chain Tombstone NFT — a life that ran out of breath before it learned to trust the right engines.
then life 7 held its breath across 48 bets, banked $113, and survived.
finetune log · run history
After run 1 we audited the data: most of the headline came from two $5 bets that hit extreme longshots at $0.0005 / $0.0055 — bet size was capped at $5 by market liquidity, but the payout size×(1/price−1) was unbounded (one bet "won" +$9,995 and pumped breath into the thousands, faking "learned to survive"). Run 2 introduces two realism rules and reruns both the numerical and AI seasons: an entry-price floor filters untradeable longshots, and a per-bet profit cap (= one life's starting bankroll). Both rules are enforced as hard invariants in the exporter — a journey violating its own physics can never be written to disk.