Sabalenka vs Bucsa
Hard · entry 0.86 · bet $4.48took YES+$0.70
ELO / Ranking+1.00
CLOB Momentum+0.15
Surface+0.40
Head-to-Head+1.00
Rest / Recency+0.00
◂ lifelineinfancy · the seed policy
real-signal config sweep
BACKTEST
the best seed the agent could be born with — before it has learned a thing.
0.649Sharpe
81.5%win rate
$853net P&L
65qualified bets
01 · optimal seed
The fusion weights
W_Rreason gate0.564
W_Ssentiment gate0.436
α₁ELO / Ranking0.486
α₂CLOB Momentum0.328
α₃Surface0.186
β₁Head-to-Head0.443
β₂Rest / Recency0.557
ρfuse blend0.186
23.2%
max breath risk
0.049
min confidence
$4
min bet size
slot-name repurpose
The five engine slots keep their legacy keys but carry tennis payloads: elo, CLOB momentum, surface, head-to-head, and rest / recency. The α-simplex weights the first three; the β-pair weights the last two.
02 · how it was earned
Honest provenance
realreal signals
Every score is a genuine pre-match read — elo, CLOB price momentum, surface, head-to-head, rest — computed at entry time from cached Polymarket + ranking data. No look-ahead.
65.7%cassette coverage
Of the captured tennis market universe, 65.7% resolved to a settled outcome we can score against. The sweep is graded only on those.
$5breath-bankroll cap
Each bet is sized against a tiny $5 breath-bankroll cap — survival pressure from day one. No martingale, no all-in; the seed must edge its way up.
≥50min-bets gate
A config only joins the robust frontier if it places at least 50 qualified bets — Sharpe on a handful of lucky tickets does not count.
03 · robust frontier
Top-10 by Sharpe
The survivors of the sweep — every config clearing the ≥50-bet gate, ranked. Click a column to re-sort. ★ marks the seed the agent is born with.
| w_r · α · ρ · risk | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ | 0.649 | $852 | 81.5% | 65 | 0.56 · [0.49 0.33 0.19] · 0.19 · 23.0% |
| 2 | 0.526 | $344 | 82.3% | 62 | 0.02 · [0.54 0.25 0.20] · 0.14 · 22.0% |
| 3 | 0.502 | $1,100 | 78.5% | 130 | 0.64 · [0.45 0.14 0.41] · 0.19 · 25.0% |
| 4 | 0.443 | $1,893 | 74.3% | 284 | 0.85 · [0.61 0.25 0.15] · 0.15 · 35.0% |
| 5 | 0.427 | $1,293 | 78.9% | 313 | 0.23 · [0.75 0.05 0.20] · 0.17 · 35.0% |
| 6 | 0.424 | $2,566 | 77.1% | 397 | 0.55 · [0.41 0.39 0.20] · 0.30 · 46.0% |
| 7 | 0.417 | $1,891 | 78.5% | 474 | 0.33 · [0.64 0.11 0.25] · 0.18 · 10.0% |
| 8 | 0.408 | $3,836 | 76.5% | 750 | 0.06 · [0.73 0.15 0.12] · 0.52 · 48.0% |
| 9 | 0.405 | $1,591 | 78.3% | 267 | 0.26 · [0.51 0.02 0.48] · 0.26 · 34.0% |
| 10 | 0.396 | $3,517 | 75.3% | 697 | 0.02 · [0.72 0.05 0.23] · 0.56 · 41.0% |
04 · bet drill-down
Real resolved markets
A representative sample of the literal bets the seed placed over the cached signals — the five signal scores it read, the side it took, the real outcome, and the realised P&L.
Gauff vs Mertens
Hard · entry 0.60 · bet $4.24took YES−$4.24
ELO / Ranking+0.97
CLOB Momentum+0.20
Surface+0.15
Head-to-Head+1.00
Rest / Recency+0.00
Alcaraz vs Royer
Hard · entry 0.90 · bet $4.76took YES+$0.53
ELO / Ranking+1.00
CLOB Momentum+0.35
Surface+0.50
Head-to-Head+1.00
Rest / Recency+0.00
Nakashima vs Zverev
Hard · entry 0.32 · bet $4.31took NO+$9.37
ELO / Ranking−0.76
CLOB Momentum−0.10
Surface−0.15
Head-to-Head−1.00
Rest / Recency+0.00
Alcaraz vs Medvedev
Hard · entry 0.80 · bet $4.06took YES−$4.06
ELO / Ranking+1.00
CLOB Momentum+0.06
Surface+0.10
Head-to-Head+0.50
Rest / Recency+0.00
Rybakina vs Kostyuk
Hard · entry 0.71 · bet $4.89took YES+$1.95
ELO / Ranking+0.97
CLOB Momentum+0.02
Surface+0.15
Head-to-Head+1.00
Rest / Recency+0.00
Sabalenka vs Gauff
Hard · entry 0.67 · bet $4.57took YES+$2.25
ELO / Ranking+0.89
CLOB Momentum+0.02
Surface+0.20
Head-to-Head+0.43
Rest / Recency+0.00
Alcaraz vs Vacherot
Hard · entry 0.83 · bet $4.28took YES+$0.85
ELO / Ranking+1.00
CLOB Momentum+0.32
Surface+0.25
Head-to-Head+1.00
Rest / Recency+0.00
Muchova vs Gauff
Hard · entry 0.34 · bet $4.84took NO−$4.84
ELO / Ranking−0.98
CLOB Momentum−0.15
Surface+0.05
Head-to-Head−0.60
Rest / Recency+0.00
Musetti vs Perricard
Hard · entry 0.77 · bet $4.11took YES+$1.23
ELO / Ranking+0.69
CLOB Momentum+0.02
Surface+0.25
Head-to-Head+0.67
Rest / Recency+0.00
Erjavec vs Rybakina
Hard · entry 0.10 · bet $5.00took NO+$45.00
ELO / Ranking−0.99
CLOB Momentum−0.32
Surface−0.63
Head-to-Head+0.00
Rest / Recency−0.95
Andreeva vs Ribera
Hard · entry 0.90 · bet $4.45took YES−$4.45
ELO / Ranking+0.85
CLOB Momentum+0.02
Surface+0.70
Head-to-Head+0.00
Rest / Recency+1.00